Gold Nears $4,000, Then Pulls Back
Analysts Split: Peak or Pause?
Retail Stays Bullish on Gold ETFs
Market Snapshot
Gold’s rally to nearly $4,000/oz has divided market watchers on whether the run can continue or a correction looms.
On Friday, spot gold was down 0.3% at $3,844.01 after hitting a record $3,896.49 on Thursday; it is
up ~2% for the week.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Spot gold (Fri close) | $3,844.01 (-0.3%) |
| All-time high (Thu) | $3,896.49 |
| Week-to-date change | ≈ +2% |
Gold Rally May Be Nearing a Peak
SEBI-registered analyst Rajneesh Sharma warns of overheating:
- RSI around 90 indicates an extreme overbought setup.
- Gold-to-crude ratio near 62.47, roughly 3× its historical mean.
- Elliott Wave view: possibly ending Wave 3, often followed by a corrective phase.
- Fibonacci retracement levels: $3,439, $3,092, $2,530.
- Likely pullback zone: $2,800–$3,100 before a new up-leg toward $5,500–$6,000.
Markets May Outperform Gold Ahead
SEBI-registered analyst Aakash Jajoo notes gold is up about 58% over 15 months while equities were
largely flat—a divergence that could mean-revert. He expects an equity rebound as macro conditions improve and
geopolitical risks are largely priced in. His internal target for the Nifty 50 is 30,000 by Diwali 2027.
Retail Mood
On Stocktwits, sentiment for Nippon India ETF Gold BeES was bullish with
normal message volume. The ETF is up 50.6% so far in 2025.
Signals:
Long-term Bullish
Near-term Overbought
Watch Pullback Zones
Bottom Line: Momentum remains strong after record highs, but technicals flag overbought risks.
A corrective dip into $2,800–$3,100 is possible before any renewed advance, while equities may play catch-up.
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